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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.11.08 00:05l 77 Lines 3185 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 22:01:34 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities gradually
increased from approximately 440 to 600 km/sec during the period.
IMF Bt was enhanced at the start of the period (peak 13 nT), then
gradually decreased to a low of 2 nT late in the period. IMF Bz
ranged from 08 to -09 nT during the first half of the period, then
settled to a range of 04 to -04 nT for the rest of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active levels on day 1 (09 November) as the CH HSS gradually
subsides. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels
for the rest of the period (10 - 11 November).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 068
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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