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OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.11.08 23:06l 74 Lines 2938 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 22:02:11 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An isolated low-level
B-class flare occurred. Region 1007 (N35W72) continued to gradually
decay as it approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (06 November). Activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on day 2 (07
November) due to a recurrent hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (08
November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/069/070
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-020/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/50/30
Minor storm 01/35/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor storm 01/50/15
Major-severe storm 01/20/05
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