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VA2OM > SOLAR 02.03.90 11:25l 65 Lines 2891 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62588_VE2PKT
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<F1OYP<JH4XSY<N3HYM<VE3CGR<OK2PEN<VE2PKT
Sent: 260302/1017Z 62588@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Mar 02 0144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 February - 01 March 2026
Solar activity was reached moderate after an M2.3 flare at 25/1154
UTC from Region 4379 (S17, L=205, class/area=Bxo/050 on 26 Feb). A
Type II radio sweep was also observed on 25 Feb, associated with a
5-degree filament eruption near S08W27 and a C2.6 flare at 25/0656
UTC. Modeling of the ejecta from the event suggested possible
glancing influence at Earth on 28 Feb - 01 Mar. For the remainder of
the week, activity was observed between low and very low levels.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
primarily at high levels through the past seven days.
Geomagnetic field activity was reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 23 Feb during the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds increased from ~450 km/s to ~700 km/s. Total
magnetic field strength peaked around 7 nT, then fell to at or below
5 nT for the remainder of the outlook period. Active conditions were
observed over 24-26 Feb and finally to unsettled levels over 27 Feb
- 01 Mar as solar wind speeds from the coronal hole gradually waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 March - 28 March 2026
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a change for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the outlook period.
Elevated probabilities are related to the flare potential of both
currently observed spot groups on the visible disk as well as the
potential from regions that are expected to return from the
Sun's farside.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 02-08 Mar, 11-12 Mar, 15-19 Mar,
and 21-28 Mar due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent,
CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at
normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 21
Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 22 Mar; active conditions
are likely on 03 Mar, 10 Mar, 12 Mar, 14-15 Mar, 20 Mar, and 23-25
Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 02 Mar, 04 Mar, 06 Mar,
08-09 Mar, 11 Mar, 13 Mar, 16-19 Mar, and 26-28 Mar. All elevated
levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the anticipated
influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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