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VA2OM > SOLAR 19.01.90 11:25l 76 Lines 3184 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57880_VE2PKT
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<W0ARP<K5DAT<VA2OM<VE2PKT
Sent: 260119/1018Z 57880@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jan 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 January 2026
Solar activity ranged from low to strong levels. Forty-five C-class,
three M-class (R1-Minor) and one X-class (R3-Strong) activity was
observed from various regions on the disk during the period. A
majority of the activity was observed from Regions 4341 (S11, L=046,
class/area Dkc/840 on 16 Jan), 4342 (N17, L=041, class/area Dso/180
on 16 Jan) and 4343 (S11, L=097, class/area Dki/310 on 16 Jan).
Region 4341 produced the following R1 (Minor) flare activity; an
M1.6/1f at 14/2033 UTC, an M2.1/2b at 17/1029 UTC and an M1.1/2n at
17/2351 UTC. This region also produced an X1.9/3b long-duration
event at 18/1809 UTC. Associated with this flare was a 693 km/s Type
II sweep, a Type IV sweep, a 3,200 sfu Tenflare and a Castelli-U
radio burst. An associated full-halo CME was first noted in GOES
CCOR-1 imagery at about 18/1830 UTC. Additional coronagraph imagery
will determine any Earth-directed component.
A 10 MeV at 10 pfu proton event at geosynchronous orbit (S1-Minor)
was first observed at 18/2255 UTC. This event occurred in
association with the X1.9 flare at 18/1830 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 12-18 Jan. A peak flux of 9,398 pfu was observed at
14/1645 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels
(G1-Minor) throughout the period. Quiet to active levels were
detected on 12-13 Jan associated with waning CME influence and
effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels were
observed on 14 Jan. Unsettled to minor storm (R1-Minor) levels were
detected on 15 through midday on 17 Jan. Unsettled to active levels
were observed on the later half of 17 Jan through 18 Jan due to
positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 January - 14 February 2026
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels, with a chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) levels
over the next forecast period, all due to multiple regions on the
visible disk as well as regions expected to return.
10 Mev at 10 pfu proton events (S1-Minor) are expected at
geosynchronous orbit on 19-20 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 19-27 Jan and 12-14 Feb, all due to
the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The
remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach (G1-Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 29 Jan and unsettled to active levels on 19-23,
27-28, 30-31 Jan, 04-11 and 13-14 Feb. All enhancements in activity
are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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