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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.10.08 00:07l 76 Lines 3053 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:01:41 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was
numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions,
Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s
during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while
the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period
between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels
are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 071
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 071/072/072
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 015/020-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/15/10
Minor storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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