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Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2008 22:01:43 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Observations measured at the ACE spacecraft show a continued
influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Solar wind speed has averaged around 630 km/s with Bz
fluctuations from +4 nT to -7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one (11
August) of the forecast. Predominately quiet levels are expected
for days two and three (12-13 August) as the high speed stream
becomes less geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 066
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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