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Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:01:57 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1000 (S12W44) is
spotless. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The solar
wind speed continues elevated to a range of 620 to 650 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during day one (24 July), and quiet
on days two and three (25, 26 July). The effects of the high speed
stream from the coronal hole should diminish during the latter part
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 066
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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