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Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:01:56 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
The ACE solar wind signatures indicate the increase in activity is
due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocity
increased steadily through the last 24 hour period with speeds
averaging around 615 km/s at report time. The IMF Bz also
fluctuated from -10 nT to +13 nT during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly at unsettled levels with isolated
periods of active conditions for 13-14 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 15 July.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 065
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
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