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Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 22:02:16 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S08W91)
has produced several C-class events, the largest being a C2 at
18/1320Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Activity levels should decrease with the
rotation of Region 978 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately unsettled to active
levels. This elevated activity is due to a coronal hole high speed
stream that has rotated into a geoeffective position. Measurements
at the ACE spacecraft indicated a steady increase in solar wind
speed. At the time of forecast issue the wind speed was
approximately 700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels for 19 to 21
December due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 077
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/40
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/40
Minor storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
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to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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