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HP2DFA > NHC 24.10.26 18:33l 132 Lines 6182 Bytes #300 (0) @ WW
BID : 5659_HP2DFA
Subj: NHC: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (24-Oct 06:00Z)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<GB7BED<K1AJD<VE3CGR<
VK2RZ<W0ARP<HP2DFA
Sent: 261024/1057Z 5659@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241050
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on <a href='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif'>0600 UT
1020 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop
as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and
low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas along a trough or
developing frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to
induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds and
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force
over much of the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W tonight
through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to
avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https:<a href='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml'>www.nh
Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level
trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical
moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast
to weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy
rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening
flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and
the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 10N29W, and resumes
from 09N39W to 07N58W. A surface trough is analyzed along 37W
from 11N to 20N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 20N between 14W and 38W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 40W and
55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over
the Gulf waters N of 21N. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and a trough E of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E winds basin-wide along with moderate seas, except
slight over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz.
For the forecast, the tightening of the pressure gradient between
the high pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the
southern Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits from
this evening through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.
Upper-level diffluent flow over the central basin supports
scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms over the
north-central Caribbean while a surface trough along 78W and the E
Pacific monsoon support similar convective activity over the SW
Caribbean. With a broad ridge over the Gulf of America, northerly
winds have reached moderate speeds in the NW basin W of 83W,
including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh N winds
are also offshore Nicaragua. Seas in both the SW and NW Caribbean
are slight. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic
subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh ESE
winds E of 74W where seas are moderate to 7 ft.
For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough over the eastern
Gulf of America and NW Caribbean will support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central
Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun night into Mon.
Meanwhile, the broad trough over the central and SW Caribbean
will support moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas
west of 76W through today, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds
and moderate seas east of 76W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE
winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W
early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect
rough seas and large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and
Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A surface trough extends from 29N67W to a 1012 mb low pres near
23N69W across central Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 31N
between 64W and 73W. NE of this broad area of low pressure, a cold
front extends from 31N53W to 29N65W. Both the front and a pre-
frontal trough are supporting scattered showers N of 24N between
57W and 62W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporing moderate to
fresh NE to E winds E of 40W, except locally strong in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to
the north and west of the broad area of low pressure E of the
Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas to 8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones today as high
pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low
pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold
front moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is
expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E
winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force
over much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W
early Sun through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert
to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary
precautions to avoid the affected areas.
$$
Ramos
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