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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.10.26 18:33l 314 Lines 12018 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25762_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-OCT
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<GB7BED<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 261023/1130Z 25762@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 23 07:52:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI OCT 23 07:52:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 23 07:52:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI OCT 23 07:52:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 23, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AN ELONGATED WESTERN US TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE
PRIMARY VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
APPROACH COASTAL SOUTHERN CA. DESPITE THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH, MID-LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH PERTURBATIONS AND THE STRONG FLOW CROSSING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN
MT. A TRAILING LEE TROUGH WILL CONNECT TO A SECOND, MUCH WEAKER,
CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN NM AND NORTHERN SENORA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MODEST NORTHWARD RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY ROBUST MOISTURE, AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NM AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM
AND SOUTHERN CO. THE IMPACT THIS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL
HAVE ON LATER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS, MID-LEVEL ASCENT, PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF 50-60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, WITH
ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS EXPECTED, OWING TO
ELONGATED AND FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK, WITH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, SOME
VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AIDED BY TERRAIN-INDUCED BACKING OF THE
FLOW AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO
RISK WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.
FARTHER SOUTH MORE ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHERE CLEARING SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT. AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG IS LIKELY TO EXIST AMIDST THE STRONG WIND FIELDS.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE VEERED WITH THE
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE RESPONSE, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL STILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL (SOME 2+ INCH) IS POSSIBLE. THE DEEPER MIXING, ESPECIALLY
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT IN SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX, MAY ALSO
SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING/SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL IF STORMS REMAIN HIGHER
BASED.
...HIGH PLAINS...
A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO WHERE MODEST BUOYANCY,
INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT, AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST. CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
PERSIST INTO THE DRIER AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS BEGINNING MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL.
THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN,
BUT 5% WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED.
..LYONS/THORNTON.. 10/23/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 23, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
...NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX VICINITY...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL PREVENT MUCH
EASTWARD-ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER AZ. AS A RESULT, A
BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM
EASTERN AZ INTO NM. AT THE SURFACE, LOWER PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT/MAINTAIN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND WESTERN TX. MODEST DESTABILIZATION, AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER CYCLONE,
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, INCREASING IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT,
WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST (TO AROUND 7 C/KM), WITH
COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -13 C NOTED IN REGIONAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL RISK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT FAST STORM MOTION
(40 KT OR SO), SOME RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE STRONGER HEATING OCCURS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MODEST (GENERALLY 50S F DEWPOINTS MAX), SOME RISK FOR A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS RISK WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR
WEST TX WHERE INSTABILITY AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE MAXIMIZED.
..LEITMAN.. 10/23/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 23, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, POSING MAINLY A RISK FOR
HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER CYCLONE/TROUGH OVER UT/AZ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BELT OF
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN TX INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN KS.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING, LENDING TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TEXAS, FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUTED DAYTIME HEATING COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS, RESULTING IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION. SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT GIVEN VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT. COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.
..LEITMAN.. 10/23/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 23, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK (DAY 6/WED), A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S. BY
THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED, AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
AND WILL LARGELY REMAIN DISPLACED FROM STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW.
OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH DAY 8/FRI.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY, WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS MONTANA, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY, SOUTHEASTERN
MT, AND WESTERN SD. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-25% WILL OVERLAP WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20-30 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE FORECAST. A CRITICAL
DELINEATION WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY,
SOUTHEASTERN MT, AND WESTERN SD WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AMID DRYING FUELS (70-75TH PERCENTILE ERCS). BROADER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING INTO
THE DAKOTAS.
...GEORGIA...
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW ELEVATED THRESHOLDS, INCREASED INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
..THORNTON.. 10/23/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ON D2/SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL OVERLAP DRY FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AFTERNOON RHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 40-45% WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
THE STRONGEST (10-15 MPH), PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY DRAWN AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 10/23/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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