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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.10.26 18:33l 285 Lines 10219 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25880_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-OCT
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261024/1130Z 25880@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 24 07:55:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 24 07:55:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 24 07:55:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 24 07:55:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS THE PRIMARY VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM NORTHERN BAJA, FORECAST TO DEEPEN
MODESTLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RELATIVELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TRAILING FROM A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A MUCH
WEAKER SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS,
AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONES, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM AGL.
...SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS...
INITIAL ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE FOUR CORNERS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE MOIST AIR MASS AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AS EARLY AS 12-13Z. AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN (40-50 KT EBWD), AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK FOR HAIL MAY
MATERIALIZE.
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OCCUR EAST OF
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS DESTABILIZATION
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TX. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AMIDST MODESTLY VEERING, BUT ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS PROMOTING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
(1-2 INCHES) WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR LARGER
HAIL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AT LEAST SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM OF MODEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WITH
THE MORE STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS.
EVENTUALLY, THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO MORE
CLUSTER/LINEAR STORM MODES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND
WEST TX. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH EVENTUALLY CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT
FARTHER EAST.
...NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT, LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY
SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL INTENSITY, VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF SOME CLUSTERS. A LOW-END RISK FOR
SEVERE GUSTS OR ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
..LYONS/THORNTON.. 10/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, POSING MAINLY A RISK FOR
HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS.
...SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...
THE UPPER CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT TROUGH OVER UT/AZ EARLY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST FROM CENTRAL NM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD LEND TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THUS, DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
AMID VERTICALLY VEERING/SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES. ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12 C AT 500 MB SUGGEST
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 10/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 24, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON MONDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY AND A STRONGER/DEEPENING UPPER
CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
KS/NE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK, AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. AS A RESULT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
..LEITMAN.. 10/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 24, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW DURING THE DAY 4-8/TUE-SAT
PERIOD. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A
LOW-AMPLITUDE AND WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST AND PRIOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH THE PROGRESSIVE MID-WEEK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST, RESULTING IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, BUT ANY DEEP MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST. WHILE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
PLAINS, OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
A LACK OF FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CONUS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN US SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES AMID ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS, FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
..THORNTON.. 10/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ON D2/SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN US TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH
A FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.
CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE EASTERN US HIGH. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS LOW DESPITE A FEW AREAS WITH LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
..THORNTON.. 10/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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