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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.10.26 18:33l 273 Lines 9533 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25483_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-OCT
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 261020/1130Z 25483@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 20 08:00:03 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 20 08:00:03 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 20 08:00:03 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 20 08:00:03 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY, AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 10/20/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OF A MOISTENING AIRMASS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE REGIONS, AND GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED OVERLAP
OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED AIRMASS, A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
...DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
(GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED). SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 60S F, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AZ, YIELDING OVER
1500 J/KG MLCAPE GIVEN 7+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND
ACCOMPANYING SOUTHEASTERLY ANTECEDENT FLOW, YIELDING ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WITH SIZEABLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS, A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CA SHORELINE...
THE CORE OF AN 80 KT 500 MB JET WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD (00-12Z THURSDAY), RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT BUT HIGHLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, A MOIST MARINE AIRMASS WILL ADVECT TO THE CA SHORELINE
WHILE BEING OVERSPREAD BY 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, YIELDING
250-500 J/KG OF SHORT AND THIN MLCAPE. GIVEN THE SCANT BUOYANCY,
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED, WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELL MODES POSSIBLE. A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT CAN REACH THE SHORE, AS WELL AS A
LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/20/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 20, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONUS WEST OF THE
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION
OF A MOIST, MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A BROAD 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THESE REGIONS DURING THE DAY, RESULTING IN STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
YIELD SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED 50-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING IN
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND OVER 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING TO SOME DEGREE,
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION (E.G. 60+ F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS) BENEATH 7+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD UP TO
1000 J/KG MLCAPE. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A MARGINAL RISK HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, IF AREAS OF
LOCALLY GREATER SURFACE HEATING (I.E. BREAKS IN CLOUDS) BECOME
EVIDENT, THEN HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/20/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 20, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAYS 4-5 (FRIDAY-SATURDAY), WHEN STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THEREAFTER, BUOYANCY AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTION
INTO THE PLAINS.
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL YIELD A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW REGIME ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
RELATIVELY COOL AND/OR STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
CONUS, WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, AS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY ML/AI GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS CONUS TODAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY
BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM THE CA CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PROMOTE A BROAD
DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE USHERING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING MINIMUM
DAYTIME RH AROUND 20% IN PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT
STRESSED FUELS REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS REDUCING THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS CONUS D2/WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE CA CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EXPANDING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION INTO CA, THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
STAGNANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN ADDITION
TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE FURTHER DRYING OF THE
FUELSCAPE OCCURS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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