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LU9DCE > NEWS 09.08.26 04:23l 408 Lines 16810 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19459_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260809/0207Z 19459@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 8 07:22:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 8 07:22:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 8 07:22:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 8 07:22:01 UTC
2026.
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SPC AUG 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN/IA/MO...
A MODEST BUT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE/SD MAY
SUPPORT ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT COULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL.
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO NIGHTTIME HOURS BECOMES COMPLEX
AND UNCERTAIN. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MODESTLY
STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK, AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POSE CAPPING ISSUES. NEVERTHELESS,
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, TRANSPORTING 60S F
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MO VALLEY AHEAD OF
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED ACROSS ND AND NORTHERN MN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION.
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
WARM MIDLEVELS, IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY AND HOW STORM COVERAGE WILL EVOLVE. WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ATOP A CAPPING INVERSION, OR ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CO AND WESTERN
KS/NE. A HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
A MODEST MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRONG HEATING OF A SEASONALLY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CELLS AND CLUSTERS WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
...AZ...
EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL FOSTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EVENING. THE HOT
AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AS
CONVECTION MOVES WESTWARD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE LOWER
DESERTS.
..LEITMAN/MARSH.. 08/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. FOR THAT REASON, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES MAXIMIZED. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN EAST-TO-WEST AXIS OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA,
SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THIS AXIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND SHORT INTENSE LINE
SEGMENTS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...MAINE...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
DAY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEAR THE
FRONT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE. THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
1.70 TO 1.85 INCH RANGE, WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 F ON SUNDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY,
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA, WITH THE STORMS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE
AIR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 08/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 8, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM
PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S F, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION, THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MOST LIKELY SUPPORT A MIXED MODE, WITH SUPERCELLS AND SHORT
INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING IF A COLD POOL
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EASTWARD INTO IOWA, WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE COULD
PEAK IN THE IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST
SECTOR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LOCALIZED.
..BROYLES.. 08/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE US TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS ONCE AGAIN FOUND ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT LOOKS MODEST WITH THIS FEATURE. A
WEAK LOWER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT A BELT OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ATOP A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
... NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST ...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING BRING DOWN MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEP MIXING
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO PERHAPS AS LOW
AS 5% IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10-15% ELSEWHERE. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE
FUELS, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
... CALIFORNIA SIERRAS, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA, AND MUCH OF UTAH
...
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHERE THE ADVANCING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. BENEATH THIS MOIST
PLUME, A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EVAPORATION OF FALLING PRECIPITATION LEADING TO LITTLE, IF ANY,
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THESE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
... HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, FAR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BELT OF MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 700-MILLIBAR FLOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FLOW SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING MIXES INTO
AND THROUGH THIS LAYER. THE RESULT WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 IN THE PRESENCE OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING
INTO THE TEENS. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ERC PERCENTILES SHOW A VERY DRY
FUELSCAPE, WITH PERCENTILES BETWEEN 95-98%. A SMALL ELEVATED AREA
WAS INTRODUCED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..MARSH.. 08/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS PERIPHERY.
... NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON EAST INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA ...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE YIELDING LOCALIZED AREAS OF 15-20
MPH WINDS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT THE SAME TIME, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF IDAHO AND
WYOMING.
... SIERRAS EAST INTO COLORADO ...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ON SUNDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH
THESE STORMS DEVELOP CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS DEEPLY MIXED, WITH A
VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION
WITHIN PRECIPITATION CORES, LIMITING MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. STRONG, GUSTY, AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
... PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ...
THE BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY 700-MILLIBAR FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. AS STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE YIELDING WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
AT THE SAME TIME, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES
WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ERC PERCENTILES SHOW
MUCH OF THE AREA AT GREATER THAN 95%, WITH POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 98%.
THIS COMBINATION OF FUEL DRYNESS, WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A COUPLE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER (NEARLY TO 500 MILLIBARS) WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
ORIGINATING IN THE MID-LEVELS. SUB-CLOUD LAYER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20% WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION EFFICIENCY, LIMITING WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THUS, A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRE STARTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.
..MARSH.. 08/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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