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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.09.24 09:34l 89 Lines 3650 Bytes #297 (0) @ WW
BID : 7430_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-SEP24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<K1AJD<KA1VSC<GB7CIP<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<
LU9DCE
Sent: 240913/0730Z 7430@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 13 02:42:01 UTC 2024
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 13 02:42:01 UTC 2024.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 13 02:42:01 UTC 2024
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 13 02:42:01 UTC 2024.
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SPC SEP 13, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL, ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA,
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS, THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH CYCLONIC SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A DUAL-CENTERED LOW AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE FRONT, AND FURTHER WEST
INTO THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN EASTERN MONTANA. WITHIN THIS AREA
OF STORMS, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F, AND THE RAP IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS AT GLASGOW, MONTANA AND MINOT, NORTH DAKOTA HAVE 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION, MOST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8 C/KM. SURFACE OBS HAVE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS MOSTLY VARYING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES F. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A FEW GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FRANCINE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA, WHERE
THE RAP IS ANALYZING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. NEAR THE AXIS, THE 00Z
SOUNDING AT BIRMINGHAM HAS MUCAPE AROUND 600 J/KG, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED, AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 09/13/2024
READ MORE
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