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LU9DCE > ALERT    05.09.24 09:31l 80 Lines 3071 Bytes #289 (0) @ WW
BID : 7031_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-SEP24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<KB5YZB<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 240905/0730Z 7031@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24

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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU SEP  5 03:02:02 UTC 2024

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU SEP  5 03:02:02 UTC 2024.

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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU SEP  5 03:02:02 UTC 2024

NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU SEP  5 03:02:02 UTC 2024.

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SPC SEP 5, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED SEP 04 2024

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM EASTERN
COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLORADO AND WYOMING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RAP ANALYSIS HAS WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING
HAVE 0-3 KM SHEAR MOSTLY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS, WITH 850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING, LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND
NEAR A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR
THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING, WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
STRONGEST.

..BROYLES.. 09/05/2024

READ MORE

      

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