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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.08.24 09:31l 247 Lines 7510 Bytes #279 (0) @ WW
BID : 6599_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 240826/0730Z 6599@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647
WW 647 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 252215Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WHILE POSING A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, ALONG WITH
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65-75 MPH. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF HURON SD TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AINSWORTH NE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 646...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0647 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W YKN TO
25 N ANW TO 40 ENE PIR.
..DEAN..08/26/24
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-015-017-023-025-035-043-053-059-061-073-077-085-097-
111-115-260340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HAND HANSON JERAULD
KINGSBURY LYMAN MINER
SANBORN SPINK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0646 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 4BL TO
55 NNE GJT TO 15 SSW CAG.
..SPC..08/26/24
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-033-045-077-083-085-103-107-113-260240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD
MESA MONTEZUMA MONTROSE
RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1992
MD 1992 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... FOR NORTHEAST SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647...
VALID 260350Z - 260515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A SMALL
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SD, WITH SOME
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND INBOUND RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KABR
RECENTLY NOTED. THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
STRONGER MLCAPE, AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MLCINH (AS NOTED PER RECENT RAP
ANALYSES). LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CLUSTER THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SD. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR LOCAL WATCH EXPANSION, IF
THIS CLUSTER REMAINS ORGANIZED TO THE EDGE OF WW 647.
..DEAN.. 08/26/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44569892 45489857 45839833 45869777 45829720 45489715
45079720 44569756 44309803 44359830 44569892
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 26, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2024
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE, AN ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF SEVERE WIND OR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
...01Z UPDATE...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. STRONG
TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN
SD/ND INTO WESTERN MN IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. HERE, 30+
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MID 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CONTRIBUTING TO
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVERLAPPING WITH 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE
INCREASING MLCINH SHOULD GRADUALLY INFLUENCE STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELLS THAT
ARE EITHER ONGOING OR CAN DEVELOP. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS, WHERE STRONG FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN SPOTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/26/2024
READ MORE
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