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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.05.25 11:13l 696 Lines 20763 Bytes #297 (0) @ WW
BID : 3160_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAY25
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250520/0730Z 3160@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 298
WW 298 TORNADO IL MO 200125Z - 200800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH TORNADOES
AND SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. AN INTENSE/BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A GREATER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS, WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO
70-80 MPH ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL UP TO 1-2
INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS
MO TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 294...WW 295...WW
296...WW 297...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 297
WW 297 TORNADO AR OK TX 192350Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERAL TORNADOES
APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AND A COUPLE OF THESE SHOULD BE STRONG TO INTENSE
(EF2-3+). SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING,
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS. PEAK GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 70-80 MPH. LARGE HAIL UP TO
2.5-3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALSO APPEARS LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT OK TO
20 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON AR. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW
294...WW 295...WW 296...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 298 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0298 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE FLP
TO 35 W FAM TO 25 SW STL TO 35 S UIN.
..BROYLES..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-013-027-051-055-061-077-081-083-087-117-119-121-133-
135-145-153-157-163-181-189-199-200440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLINTON FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON
JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-123-133-143-149-157-163-173-179-
181-183-186-187-189-201-203-207-221-223-510-200440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 297 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0297 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ADM
TO 40 WNW DEQ TO 25 SW FLP TO 20 WSW UNO.
..BROYLES..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-023-029-045-049-051-057-061-063-065-067-071-075-081-083-
089-091-097-101-105-109-113-115-121-127-129-133-135-137-141-145-
147-149-200440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE RANDOLPH
SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
OKC013-023-089-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0296 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N STJ TO
30 NNW LWD TO 35 N OTM.
..BROYLES..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-117-123-125-135-159-179-185-200340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE RINGGOLD
WAPELLO WAYNE
MOC001-041-053-079-081-089-115-121-129-171-175-197-211-200340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHARITON COOPER
GRUNDY HARRISON HOWARD
LINN MACON MERCER
PUTNAM RANDOLPH SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 295 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0295 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PRX TO
35 N FTW TO 35 SW ADM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
..WEINMAN..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC097-147-181-277-200240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON
LAMAR
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 294 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0294 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SZL TO
30 W SZL TO 25 W OJC TO 20 NE FLV TO 25 SE SDA.
..BROYLES..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC091-209-200340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON WYANDOTTE
MOC003-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-095-101-107-117-147-159-177-
195-227-200340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW CALDWELL CARROLL
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
NODAWAY PETTIS RAY
SALINE WORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 293 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0293 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW BIE TO
30 NNE LNK TO 15 WSW TQE.
..BROYLES..05/20/25
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-200140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
NEC025-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-155-177-200140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DOUGLAS GAGE
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 292 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0292 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
..WEINMAN..05/19/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-
047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087-
091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-
125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
READ MORE
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SPC MD 895
MD 0895 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 297...298... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN ILLINOIS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WESTERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...298...
VALID 200342Z - 200545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 297, 298 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST
OF WW 297.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS. AHEAD OF THE LINE, MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP, WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE RAP HAS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH THE NOSE OF THE
JET IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR,
WHICH IS SAMPLED BY THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP, WHICH HAS 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE THREAT MAXIMIZED
WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF
THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS, WHERE WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/20/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 34419338 34309273 34359183 34589111 35229043 36138977
37748917 38648909 39198953 39299038 39179094 39019118
38809137 38379149 37929170 37169193 36589223 35759294
35069376 34699380 34419338
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 894
MD 0894 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 294... FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...
VALID 200158Z - 200400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE LINE IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE RAP SHOWS A 40
TO 45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI, WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. AHEAD OF THE LINE AT THE SURFACE,
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F, AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS BOWING LINE SEGMENT. HOWEVER, AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE IS EXPECTED
TO DOWNTREND.
..BROYLES.. 05/20/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38669441 38659306 39029238 39889230 40319266 40469379
40399460 39989507 39609516 39109507 38669441
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC CENTER PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (PWO)
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...
* LOCATIONS...
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
* HAZARDS...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE
SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, SOME BASEBALL SIZE
* SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. STRONG TORNADOES,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS, AND VERY LARGE
HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORNADOES AT NIGHT CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY
ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO SEE. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND
WARNINGS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES TO FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY,
IDEALLY IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING.
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 20, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. STRONG TORNADOES, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS, AND VERY LARGE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
...TX/OK TO THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
WHILE EXTENSIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, THERE ARE SEVERAL
PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. IN THE
NEAR-TERM, THE GREATEST TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST WITH A
PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED QLCS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE RED
RIVER. WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS
PORTION OF THE QLCS, STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. DESPITE STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED WEST, THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE QLCS
SUGGESTS THAT EMBEDDED WIND GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH COULD PRODUCE A
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATH THAT MAY PERSIST
EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED OUTLOOK CATEGORIES FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY.
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE QLCS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ACCELERATE
EAST, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BACK
WEST WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK TONIGHT. THIS COULD POSE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
...KS AND THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY WANE DURING THE LATE
EVENING. BUT SIMILAR TO THE OK REDEVELOPMENT, POST-DRYLINE/FRONTAL
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPINGE ON LINGERING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS
COULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 05/20/2025
READ MORE
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