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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.08.24 09:34l 324 Lines 10008 Bytes #275 (0) @ WW
BID : 6388_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<VK5RSV<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 240822/0730Z 6388@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643
WW 643 SEVERE TSTM MT 220025Z - 220700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL AROUND 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER, ALONG WITH
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65-75 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF GLASGOW
MT TO 95 MILES SOUTH OF GLASGOW MT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 642...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
WW 642 SEVERE TSTM MT SD 212100Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 145 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BROADUS MT TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PHILIP SD.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25030.
...HART
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0643 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLS
TO 20 ENE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF.
..GOSS..08/22/24
ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC021-079-083-085-091-109-220440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAWSON PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN WIBAUX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0642 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP
TO 35 ESE 2WX TO 25 N 4BQ TO 5 N MLS.
..GOSS..08/22/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-220440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-137-220440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS
TODD ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1971
MD 1971 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...643... FOR EASTERN MONTANA
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...643...
VALID 220153Z - 220400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642, 643
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS -- CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
VICINITY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION SHOWS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS, CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS CLUSTER BEARS WATCHING, AS
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION COULD RESULT IN THE STORMS
BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY LONG-LIVED TO BRING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EAST OF WW 643 INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS COULD REQUIRE DOWNSTREAM WW CONSIDERATION.
..GOSS.. 08/22/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48970909 48990278 47380222 44230058 43580099 44070251
44930360 44920473 45280638 46420731 47540940 48970909
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SPC AUG 22, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2024
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
...MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AB AND WESTERN MT THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM, MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN SD. MODERATE
TO STRONG BUOYANCY (WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) AND FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR (GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 KT) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS ENCOUNTER INCREASING MLCINH, BUT SOME
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING, INCLUDING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND AN INCREASING SEVERE-WIND THREAT.
SEE MCD 1970 FOR MORE INFORMATION.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WY, WITH WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF CO.
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME MODEST UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME FROM WESTERN NE INTO NORTHEAST CO AND
WESTERN KS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET. AS A RESULT, A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE INCREASING MLCINH
RESULTS IN A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT.
...SOUTHEAST AZ...
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ
HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED SEVERE-HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS INITIALLY MODERATE BUOYANCY
DIMINISHES WITH TIME, BUT A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DEAN.. 08/22/2024
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