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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.05.25 10:00l 630 Lines 17650 Bytes #295 (0) @ WW
BID : 2998_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-MAY25
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<IR0AAB<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250518/0730Z 2998@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283
WW 283 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 180250Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LARGEST HAILSTONES MAY REACH UP TO 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THERE
IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD INCREASE AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHICKASHA OK TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT SMITH AR. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...WW
281...WW 282...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28035.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
WW 282 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 180045Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS SHOULD SPREAD GENERALLY
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH
LARGE HAIL AROUND 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TX TO 30 MILES NORTH OF MONROE LA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 278...WW 279...WW
280...WW 281...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280
WW 280 SEVERE TSTM TX 171955Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEL
RIO TX TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEMPLE TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0283 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-131-143-180440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081-
083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135-
143-145-180440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
CREEK GARFIELD GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER
LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0282 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE PRX TO
30 N SHV TO 20 NNE MLU.
..BROYLES..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-
099-103-109-113-127-133-139-180440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SCOTT SEVIER
UNION
LAC027-111-180440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
OKC089-180440-
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0281 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GWO
TO 25 NNW MLU.
..HALBERT..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-041-043-180140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA
DREW
LAC035-067-123-180140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL
MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-151-163-180140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON YAZOO
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0280 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
..HALBERT..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411-
435-463-465-180040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN BURNET
EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK
MENARD REAL SAN SABA
SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 279 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0279 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SPS
TO 5 NNW CDS.
..HALBERT..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-
049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095-
099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-180140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER
KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN
LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN
MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0278 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRS
TO 15 S FTW TO 25 SW ADM.
..HALBERT..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-349-379-
397-439-467-180140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR NAVARRO RAINS
ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0277 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB
TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML.
..THORNTON..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NHC005-007-009-019-172340-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON
SULLIVAN
NYC083-172340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RENSSELAER
VTC003-025-172340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
READ MORE
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SPC MD 848
MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... FOR ARK-LA-TEX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-TEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...
VALID 180253Z - 180500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ARK-LA-TEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ACCORDING TO MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE, ACCORDING
TO THE RAP. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. IN
ADDITION, THE SHREVEPORT WSR-88D VWP HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS EVENING IN THE ARK-LA-TEX HAVE STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THAT A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES, AND AS A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INCREASES.
..BROYLES.. 05/18/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447
33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398
34349332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 18, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
...01Z UPDATE...
EARLY-EVENING WATER-VAPOR SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS
ADVANCED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST OK. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TO NEAR GAG IN ELLIS COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT, AND SOME
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN 850MB FLOW COULD AID UPSCALE GROWTH TO ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE WARM-ADVECTION ZONE, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PERSIST FROM
SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHEAST TX. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV EXHIBITS A
VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 45KT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE IN A GENERAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION, ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR, ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUES.
..DARROW.. 05/18/2025
READ MORE
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