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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.08.24 09:31l 246 Lines 7364 Bytes #273 (0) @ WW
BID : 6284_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-AUG24
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 240820/0730Z 6284@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640
WW 640 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 192050Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT MON AUG 19 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IDAHO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF SALMON ID TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUT BANK MT. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
23025.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0640 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GTF TO
35 SW GTF TO 10 ESE 3DU TO 50 NW SMN.
..GOSS..08/20/24
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC013-015-027-029-035-039-041-045-047-049-051-063-073-077-081-
099-101-200340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS
FLATHEAD GLACIER GRANITE
HILL JUDITH BASIN LAKE
LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MISSOULA
PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI
TETON TOOLE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0639 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DEN TO
35 WNW AKO TO 30 NNE AKO TO 40 ENE SNY AND 30 WSW PUB TO 35 SSE
ITR TO 45 NNW GLD TO 30 W AKO.
..HALBERT..08/20/24
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC025-061-089-101-121-200340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROWLEY KIOWA OTERO
PUEBLO WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1962
MD 1962 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640...
VALID 200231Z - 200400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, IN/NEAR WW 640.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT AS STORMS HAVE DESCENDED
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS INTO A LOOSE BANDED
STRUCTURE HAS OCCURRED. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT
AROUND 40 KT, AND HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER THE PAST HOUR, ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. EXPECT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BEFORE
STORMS WEAKEN -- AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND WELL TO THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 20/04Z
EXPIRATION TIME SET FOR WW 640.
..GOSS.. 08/20/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47961130 48241110 48841063 48920826 47100859 46680943
47091000 47631058 47961130
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 20, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2024
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...01Z UPDATE...
NOTABLE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS TOPPING THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS RIDGE OVER EASTERN MT EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY, LESS
AMPLIFIED DISTURBANCE IS EJECTING ACROSS THE BITTER ROOTS OF ID INTO
EXTREME WESTERN MT. EACH OF THESE FEATURES APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED ROBUST CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM.
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN CO-NE
PANHANDLE-EASTERN MT. THIS AXIS OF BUOYANCY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. BOTH GGW AND
UNR EXHIBITED MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH AMPLE 0-6KM SHEAR, FOR
SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS; THOUGH, BOTH HAD CINH AND CAPPING AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 1KM AGL. PRIMARY CONCENTRATION OF
LONGER-LIVED CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS
THIS IS WHERE THE LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER SUNSET. HAIL/WIND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISKS.
..DARROW.. 08/20/2024
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