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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.03.25 12:53l 158 Lines 6144 Bytes #296 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-MAR25
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAR 26 05:51:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED MAR 26 05:51:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC MD 265
MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED
RIVER
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260409Z - 260615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND
SPORADIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLUSTER HAIL EVENT
OVER NORTH TEXAS, THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE OVER
1000 J/KG EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
INTO OK, AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND 850 MB AIDING THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS ZONE OF WEAK LIFT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
IS ALSO NEAR THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, AND AS SUCH, IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EASY TO GET FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AN ENVIRONMENT AS FARTHER SOUTH, AT LEAST ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS FORECAST.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 03/26/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644
33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 26, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF THE CASCADES ACROSS OREGON INTO WASHINGTON. THESE MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL, PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO, AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A 100+KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES TOWARD THE
OR COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD ARC
FROM OFF THE WA COAST-SOUTH ALONG THE OR COAST BY 27/00Z.
UPPER RIDGING HAS PERMITTED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE/HOLD
ACROSS BOTH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S. WHILE PW VALUES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION, LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING PROFILES AND PW VALUES MAY
APPROACH 1 INCH PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND THE STEEP LAPSE
RATE PLUME THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 21-22Z WEST OF
THE CASCADES, AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG
WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED, ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.
LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
BY 21-22Z ACROSS WESTERN OR, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STRONG
FORCING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX. PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. HAIL
SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY
GENERATE QUITE LARGE STONES, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GOLF BALL SIZE, OR
EVEN LARGER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED REPORT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST.
...LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBSTANTIAL SUB-TROPICAL CIRRUS PLUME
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA, ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MID DAY AND THIS WILL DRAW
A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PLUME INTO SOUTH TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT MODEST LAPSE RATES DESPITE THE MOISTENING PROFILES. WHILE
FORECAST SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, SOME ORGANIZATION IS
POSSIBLE AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS
SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE, A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH MAY DISRUPT/LIMIT ORGANIZATIONAL
POTENTIAL.
..DARROW/LYONS.. 03/26/2025
READ MORE
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