| | LU9DCE > ALERT 18.03.25 12:31l 141 Lines 5668 Bytes #288 (0) @ WW
BID : 7507_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-MAR25
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<K7EK<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250318/1030Z 7507@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 18 05:59:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 18 05:59:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 18 05:59:02 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 18 05:59:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC MAR 18, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA.
...NE/IA...
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS CA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING AS 90+KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS NM INTO OK BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WARRANTS A LEE CYCLONE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER WESTERN KS BY 19/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT
MOVEMENT INTO NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY SUNRISE. LLJ WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS DURING THE LATE EVENING, AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
EASTERN NE INTO NORTHERN IA. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID BUOYANCY ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR AS PROFILES MOISTEN AND SATURATE NEAR 2KM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 700 J/KG AND THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ROBUST ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, IT APPEARS THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NE/WESTERN IA ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.
..DARROW/MOORE.. 03/18/2025
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SPC MAR 18, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE MID-LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT, WILL BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F WILL SETUP FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON,
ALONG AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS, AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK ALONG THE MOIST AXIS, ORGANIZED CELLS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN EASTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE
AFTERNOON HAVE MUCAPE PEAKING IN THE 400 TO 600 J/KG RANGE, WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS. CELLS THAT CAN
PERSIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 TO
100 MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARK-LA-TEX, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S F. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AT
00Z/THURSDAY HAVE MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70
KNOT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS, AND PERHAPS A ROTATING STORM.
MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 03/18/2025
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