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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.03.25 12:46l 424 Lines 13046 Bytes #286 (0) @ WW
BID : 7417_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-MAR25
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<K7EK<WW6Q<W9GM<KE0GB<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250316/1030Z 7417@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 49
WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 160045Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE
TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG, DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN AL
TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FL. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...BUNTING
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 49 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0049 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PNS TO
25 SSW GZH TO 20 E GZH TO 20 WNW TOI TO 15 NE TOI TO 15 WSW AUO
TO 20 NW AUO TO 20 SE ANB TO 25 E ANB TO 30 S RMG TO 20 NE RMG.
..JEWELL..03/16/25
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-017-031-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-109-111-
113-160640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL
FLC005-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-160640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES
JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
WALTON WASHINGTON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 48 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0048 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CHA
TO 15 S CSV TO 30 SE TYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
..MOORE..03/16/25
ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC047-055-083-111-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-313-
160340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE
FANNIN GILMER GORDON
LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS
TOWNS UNION WALKER
WHITE WHITFIELD
NCC039-160340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-143-160340-
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SPC MD 219
MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 160547Z - 160645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF
WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA AND THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A NEW TORNADO MAY BE
NEEDED AFTER 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA,
WITH CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG A
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL. THE STORMS ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT A 70 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LARGE HODOGRAPHS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS/TORNADOES WILL PERSIST. THUS, A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA AND THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/16/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 33318405 34148361 33888277 32888240 32038286 31438316
29898384 29788541 31298501 31928468 33318405
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SPC MD 218
MD 0218 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...
VALID 160419Z - 160615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TWO LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN AL
WILL POSE A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM INTO FAR
WESTERN GA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...TWO LEADING SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AL HAVE BOTH RECENTLY PRODUCED TORNADOES BASED ON KEOX AND KMXX
VELOCITY AND DUAL POL DATA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST AHEAD OF THESE
CELLS SHOW 30-40 MPH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ADVECTING HIGH-QUALITY
MOISTURE (MID 60S DEWPOINTS) AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
ALTHOUGH THESE CELLS ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 500
M2/S2, WHICH IS SUPPORTING STP VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 IN
PROXIMITY TO THE STORMS/WITHIN THE INFLOW REGION. BASED ON THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND OBSERVED ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES (50-60 KNOTS AT
TIMES), THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT (EF-2+) TORNADOES IN THE SHORT TERM.
..MOORE.. 03/16/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31328599 31348619 31498626 32448576 32798582 33058591
33338577 33478531 33438489 33088466 32568462 32188472
31858498 31568533 31438562 31328599
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SPC CENTER PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (PWO)
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025
...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
* LOCATIONS...
ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
WESTERN GEORGIA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
* HAZARDS...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES, SEVERAL INTENSE AND LONG TRACK
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, SOME BASEBALL SIZE
* SUMMARY...
A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
LONG-TRACK AND POTENTIALLY VIOLENT, SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, AND REACH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA TONIGHT.
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF DANGEROUS WEATHER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TORNADO
WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
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SPC MAR 16, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND SWATHS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THIS MORNING THROUGH DUSK ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF
THE EAST.
...OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH, THOUGH BIMODAL IN NATURE, WILL SHIFT
INTO THE OH VALLEY/SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH, A LEAD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA WITH 500MB SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 120KT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING A SURFACE LOW THAT
SHOULD TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO ON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS WESTERN PA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND THIS WILL AID MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE.
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE, NORTHEAST
INTO OH. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND AN UPWARD EVOLVING, STRONGLY
FORCED LINE OF STORMS, AND A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, WILL SURGE
EAST INTO WESTERN PA. DAMAGING WINDS SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THIS
CONVECTION, AND PROFILES ALSO FAVOR SOME RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES.
...SOUTHEAST...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS LOW-LATITUDE JET CORE SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO GA. THIS WILL ENSURE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT PROGRESSES
STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 18Z THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.
SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA BY 17/12Z. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION,
WITH SOME RISK FOR SUPERCELLS, WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE SURGING
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR,
AND AMPLE ESRH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A RISK OF A FEW
TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST THE MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD GENERATE HAIL. OVERALL, SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..DARROW/MOORE.. 03/16/2025
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SPC MAR 16, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON MONDAY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST, BUT NO SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED.
...DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, AND FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES.. 03/16/2025
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