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KC2GMM > NOAA 10.04.09 00:33l 82 Lines 3923 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : B50952KC2GMM
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Subj: Red River April Forecast
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Sent: 090409/1719Z @:WA2SNA.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM #:59705 [Wanaque] $:B50952KC2GMM
From: KC2GMM@WA2SNA.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM
To : NOAA@USBBS
NOAA Forecasters: Red River Will Crest Again in Fargo-Moorhead in Late
April 3, 2009
Warming temperatures in the Red River of the North basin will begin
melting ice and snowpack, setting the stage for a dangerous second crest
in Fargo, N.D., and Moorhead, Minn., later this month, according to
forecasters with NOAA's National Weather Service.
After using all available forecast temperature information to assess its
impact on the melt of snow and ice that remains in the Red River Basin,
the National Weather Service updated the outlook for the second crest at
Fargo. The current National Weather Service outlook indicates a high
probability (75 percent chance) of reaching or exceeding 41 feet and a 25
percent chance of reaching or exceeding 42.8 feet. This second crest
currently is expected to occur in the latter half of April.
Fargo saw a March record rainfall of 4.62 inches, topping the 1882 record
of 2.83 inches, and a record March snowfall of 28.1 inches, topping the
1997 record of 26.2 inches. The current winter season (2008-09) snowfall
through April 3 at Fargo-Moorhead was second only to 1996-97 totals.
Frigid temperatures have kept this water frozen in place, and it will
begin to flow into the river system in the coming weeks. Before the record
March snowfall, water content in the region’s ice and snowpack was as much
as 300 percent above normal.
"The collaborative effort of local, state and federal governments to
protect Fargo last week paid off, but Fargo isn’t out of the woods yet,"
said Scott Dummer, chief hydrologist of the North Central River Forecast
Center. "It's critical that we plan for the second crest now."
Several factors create a high potential for additional significant
flooding in the Red River of the North basin. These factors include:
High flows. Local river levels have fallen after their recent record
flows, but these drops are slowed by excessive downstream waters and the
overall low-relief of the river valley, leaving a significant amount of
water in the river.
Saturated and/or frozen soils. Heavy rain last fall produced saturated
soils before winter freeze-up. These soils remain saturated and/or frozen
to a depth of 30 inches or more, causing any spring rains or snowmelt to
rapidly runoff into the river.
Widespread frozen surface water. Cold temperatures caused overland flow
and local runoff to freeze on area fields. This water will quickly become
runoff when the temperatures warm above freezing.
Record precipitation and recent significant snowfall. Fargo saw all-time
record precipitation over the past seven months, with significant
precipitation throughout the basin, particularly upstream of Fargo. The
recent March 30-April 1 snow storm brought an additional 10-20 inches of
snow across broad sections of the basin, which will increase runoff into
the river when melting begins.
Reduced water storage. Area reservoirs are virtually full and currently
have little or no additional storage capacity. Officials are releasing
water from these reservoirs. Additional runoff will enhance the need for
further releases.
Spring warming. An inevitable warm-up through the spring combined with
the threat of additional rainfall could exacerbate the potential for rapid
runoff.
Concerns still remain about the first flood wave as it continues to slowly
move downstream toward Drayton. Residents can monitor local conditions
online.
NOAA urges residents of Fargo-Moorhead and Red River Valley communities to
continue heeding orders issued by local officials. If told to evacuate, do
so immediately.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the
depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages
our coastal and marine resources.
...........................................................................
www.noaa.gov
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