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HP2DFA > STORM 17.09.26 03:06l 34 Lines 2342 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2074_HP2DFA
Read: GUEST
Subj: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP16
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<GB7BED<K1AJD<VE3CGR<
PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260917/0042Z 2074@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
**No organized tropical cyclones, tropical depressions, or direct cyclone threats are forecast to affect Central America over the next 7 days.**
Regional atmospheric conditions across both the Caribbean and Pacific basins remain under the influence of upper-level wind shear and regional instability. The 7-day outlook breakdown by basin and impact area is detailed below:
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**1. Caribbean Sea & Tropical Atlantic**
* **Tropical Cyclone Risk:** **0 threat to Central America over the next 7 days.
* **System Monitoring:** The Caribbean Sea remains free of tropical cyclone development. Upper-level wind shear continues to suppress organized storm formation across the western Caribbean basin.
* **Impact on Central America:** The passage of weak, unorganized tropical waves will continue to pull moisture from the Caribbean. This will trigger intermittent showers and scattered afternoon downpours along the Caribbean slopes of Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras, but without tropical storm development.
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**2. Eastern Pacific Ocean**
* **Tropical Cyclone Risk:** **0 threat to Central American landmasses over the next 7 days.
* **System Monitoring:** Active systems or developing areas of low pressure in the Eastern Pacific remain positioned well to the west-northwest off the coast of Mexico, tracking away from Central America.
* **Impact on Central America:** A moist onshore flow from the Pacific will interact daily with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and local daytime heating. This setup will drive heavy afternoon and evening convective thunderstorms along the Pacific slopes of Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
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**Regional Impact Summary**
| Region | 7-Day Tropical Cyclone Risk | Dominant Weather Driver | Primary Concerns |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Pacific Slopes** | **Very Low (0ó* | Sea breeze convergence & ITCZ interaction | Flash flooding in urban zones; frequent afternoon lightning. |
| **Caribbean Slopes** | **Very Low (0ó* | Passage of weak tropical waves & trade winds | Intermittent showers, moderate sea conditions for small craft. |
| **Highlands & Cordilleras** | **Very Low (0ó* | Orographic lifting & convective storms | High risk of landslides and river surges due to saturated soils. |
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