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HP2DFA > STORM 15.09.26 04:00l 33 Lines 2239 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1999_HP2DFA
Subj: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP14
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<HB9ON<DK0WUE<DB0APK<ED1ZAC<LU1DBQ<LU9DCE<PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260915/0035Z 1999@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
No organized tropical cyclones or tropical depressions threaten Central America over the next 7 days.
The current atmospheric pattern across Central America is governed by strong El Niño conditions, which generate high vertical wind shear in the Caribbean while shifting main East Pacific tropical cyclone tracks further offshore.
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### **1. Caribbean / North Atlantic Basin**
* **Development Probability:** **0 chance of tropical cyclone formation threatening Central America in the next 7 days.
* **System Tracking:** The Caribbean Sea is calm regarding tropical cyclone development. Strong upper-level wind shear continues to suppress organized storm activity across the basin. The only system monitored in the Atlantic is a low-pressure trough in the distant Central Subtropical Atlantic, which poses no risk to Central America.
* **Impact on Central America:** Expect typical seasonal tropical waves moving west. These will interact with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to cause local afternoon downpours and thunderstorms without tropical storm organization.
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### **2. Eastern Pacific Basin**
* **Development Probability:** **0 chance of new tropical cyclone formation near Central American waters over the next 7 days.
* **System Tracking:** Active systems (such as Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E) are positioned well to the west-northwest off the coast of Mexico and Hawaii, moving away from Central America.
* **Impact on Central America:** Onshore sea breezes will draw moisture off the Pacific ocean, driving heavy afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the Pacific slopes and mountain ranges of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
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### **Summary of Regional Impacts**
| Region | 7-Day Tropical Cyclone Risk | Primary Weather Driver |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Pacific Slopes** | Very Low (0é| Sea-breeze convergence, heavy afternoon convective thunderstorms |
| **Caribbean Slopes** | Very Low (0é| Passage of weak tropical waves and trade-wind showers |
| **Mountain Ranges / Highlands** | Very Low (0é| Orographic lifting, localized severe downpours, risk of landslides |
PMAIL: HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PAN.CEAMEMAIL: HP2DFA@GMAIL.COM
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