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KF5JRV > WX 09.06.21 13:15l 62 Lines 2903 Bytes #999 (0) @ USBBS
BID : 16744_KF5JRV
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Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - Jun 09
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KF5JRV
Sent: 210609/1135Z 16744@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.20
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 9 2021 - 12Z Fri Jun 11 2021
...Locally significant flash flooding expected to continue for portions of
Arkansas and Mississippi on Wednesday...
...Persistent heat for much of the Great Plains along with threats for
severe thunderstorms across the northern High Plains into eastern
Montana...
The overall weather pattern will be rather slow to change through the
middle to end of the week across most of the nation. A large upper level
ridge anchored over the Plains will keep a frontal boundary from making
much eastern progress across the Intermountain West and the Rockies
through early Thursday, before making more progress on Friday. Meanwhile,
a cold front will make slow progress southward across the Great Lakes and
Northeast U.S. through the end of the week, bringing some welcomed relief
to the recent hot weather for these areas by Thursday and especially on
Friday. It will remain hot and humid with July-like conditions across the
remainder of the central and southern U.S. with highs running 5 to 15+
degrees above seasonal averages in many cases, with the greatest anomalies
across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. It will be pleasantly
cool for this time of year across the West Coast region since an upper
level trough will be situated across the eastern Pacific.
Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are in the forecast from the Deep
South to the Mid-Atlantic region, with scattered maxima of 1 to 3 inch
totals with locally higher amounts possible over the next two days from
Kentucky to North Carolina. The greatest concern is expected to be across
southeastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi, where a High Risk of
excessive rainfall is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
region has been hammered by torrential rain and flooding over the past 1-2
days, and the additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals on saturated ground
will greatly increase the flash flood threat. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are also expected across portions of Idaho and western
Montana near a slow moving front, and some 1 inch rainfall totals may
become realized.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Montana
on Wednesday per the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center, and a more organized severe weather threat is likely across the
Northern Plains as a strong disturbance intercepts an increasingly
unstable airmass. There will also be elevated fire weather concerns
across much of the Intermountain West, owing to a favorable combination of
gusty winds and very low humidity levels, along with ongoing severe
drought.
Hamrick
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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