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KF5JRV > WX 02.05.21 14:36l 73 Lines 3352 Bytes #999 (0) @ USBBS
BID : 14451_KF5JRV
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Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - May 02
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Sent: 210502/1204Z 14451@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.20
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Sun May 02 2021
Valid 12Z Sun May 02 2021 - 12Z Tue May 04 2021
...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the lower
Mississippi Valley today...
...Advancing cold front to bring the threat of flash flooding and severe
weather across the central High Plains today and into the Ohio and Middle
Mississippi valleys on Monday...
...Late-season heavy snow to impact the northern/central Rockies through
Monday...
After multiple days of heavy rain across southern Texas, the upper-level
low and warm front responsible will drift north today and into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Although the overall weather system will be weakening,
heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will still remain a concern. Over an
inch of rain could lead to flash flooding from southeast Louisiana to
southern Alabama. This area has experienced double its normal rainfall
over the last month, which will likely amplify the flood threat. WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the region, with Flash
Flood Watches in effect as well. Regarding the potential for severe
weather, SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of
the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes are all possible through this evening.
Meanwhile, a spring cold front traversing the midsection of the country
will bring plenty of active weather from the Ohio Valley to the central
Rockies through the beginning of this week. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon along
the frontal boundary. A few storms could turn severe and produce damaging
wind gusts and large hail. By tonight, slow moving thunderstorms may lead
to flash flooding across portions of the central Plains. At the same time,
the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado will have snow to contend with.
Upwards of 7 to 14 inches of snowfall are possible across the highest
peaks of northern Colorado by Monday evening. Winter Storm Watches have
been issued. A separate system entering the northern Rockies on Monday
evening could bring additional high elevation snow showers.
As the aforementioned cold front progresses southeast Monday and Monday
night, showers and thunderstorms are expected to extend throughout the
Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys, as well as into adjacent sections of the
southern Plains. Severe weather will be the biggest concern across the
region, with destructive hail and damaging wind gusts possible. SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for Monday that stretches
from southwest Ohio to northeast Oklahoma.
Overall, temperatures are forecast to rise above average across much of
the country today, with the northern High Plains being the only major
exception. The advancing cold front will quickly drop temperatures to
around 10 to 20 degrees below average on Monday across the central Rockies
and central/southern High Plains. High winds and low relative humidity
found ahead of this frontal boundary could produce critical fire weather
today across eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas.
Snell
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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