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KF5JRV > WX 24.04.21 13:26l 79 Lines 3570 Bytes #999 (0) @ USBBS
BID : 14068_KF5JRV
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Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - Apr 24
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<OK2PEN<NA7KR<N1URO<K3CHB<K5DAT<W0ARP<KF5JRV
Sent: 210424/0853Z 14068@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.20
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 24 2021 - 12Z Mon Apr 26 2021
...There is an Enhanced risk of Severe Thunderstorms and a Slight risk of
Excessive Rainfall over parts of the Southeast and the Central Gulf Coast
through Sunday morning...
...Rain and snow across parts of the West through Monday...
...There is an Elevated to Critical risk of Fire Weather from the
Southwest to the Southern High Plains...
Low pressure and associated fronts will move from the Southern
Plains/Central Gulf Coast to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday. The
system will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain from the
Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast through Sunday morning. The SPC
has issued an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over Southeast and
parts of the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail with a 10% or great probability of two-inch
or greater over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, and tornadoes. There is
a 10% probability of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Central Gulf
Coast to the Southeast.
Additionally, the WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall over
the same area over the Central Gulf Coast to parts of the Southeast,
likewise through to Sunday morning. By Sunday morning, the showers and
thunderstorms will move off the Southeast Coast. Furthermore, the rain
will move into parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday
into Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a second front over Upper Mississippi Valley will move eastward
to the Lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning and off the Northeast Coast by
Monday. The storm will bring rain and light snow to parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with rain moving into
the Lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning. The rain will expand into the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon ending over the
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening and the Northeast on Monday morning.
The western U.S. will have a deep area of upper-level energy moving across
the region that will produce rain and higher elevation snow over parts of
the Pacific Northwest/Northern California into the Northern Rockies on
Saturday. The rain and snow will expand into parts of Central California
and the Great Basin on Sunday, showing signs of weakening by Monday
morning. Overnight Saturday, a wave of low pressure will move eastward
out of the Northern Rockies to the Northern/Central Plains by Sunday
evening, deepening by Monday morning. The system will produce rain and
light snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by
Sunday morning. The rain and light snow will continue over the Upper
Midwest into Monday morning.
Meanwhile, the southwestern U.S. looks to remain dry through Monday. Low
relative humidity and gusty winds from the approaching upper-level
troughing will lead to ongoing fire danger for the Four Corners states
into western Texas. A Critical Risk of fire weather is in place on
Saturday for southeastern Utah, with Elevated Risks stretching into the
Southern Rockies and southeastern Nevada. On Sunday, the Critical Risk
will expand into northwestern Texas, with an Elevated Risk extending a
little farther east into Texas.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73, Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email: KF5JRV@GMAIL.com
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