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KF5JRV > WX 16.02.21 14:15l 75 Lines 3759 Bytes #999 (0) @ USBBS
BID : 10099_KF5JRV
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Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - Feb 16
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<OK2PEN<NA7KR<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<AB0AF<VA7RBP<
KF5JRV
Sent: 210216/1235Z 10099@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.20
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 16 2021 - 12Z Thu Feb 18 2021
...Lingering areas of snow and freezing rain to cause travel concerns from
the eastern Great Lakes to New England this morning...
...Frigid Arctic air and dangerously cold wind chills to persist in the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through midweek...
...A new winter storm emerging in the Southern Plains on Tuesday heads for
the Mid-South on Wednesday...
The major winter storm responsible for producing significant snow and ice
accumulations in parts of the central and eastern U.S. the last couple
days is making a beeline for eastern Canada, but not before it causes
heavy snow and freezing rain in parts of the eastern Great Lakes and New
England. Several more inches of snow are possible in the eastern Great
Lakes and northern New England while ice totals up to a quarter inch are
possible in central New England. Farther south, the storm's trailing cold
front is forecast to trigger showers and thunderstorms over South Florida
where Marginal Risks for both severe weather and flash flooding are in
place. In the storm's wake, the same area of Arctic high pressure that has
enveloped the Heartland in record cold temperatures will spill over
towards the East Coast Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. Temperatures
will dip to below normal levels on Wednesday but not to the bitterly cold
levels that transpired across the Plains and Mississippi Valley in recent
days.
Speaking of bitter cold, the Arctic high pressure over the Heartland will
ensure one more day or frigid temperatures east of the Rockies and west of
the Appalachians. Numerous record cold maximum and minimum temperatures
are expected today with the bulk of them occurring in the South Central
U.S. where daily anomalies range between 35 to 45 degrees below normal.
Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories span a massive area from the US/Canada
border to the US/Mexico border. Where Wind Chill Warnings are in place,
wind chills may plummet to a dangerous 50 degrees below zero at times. The
Arctic air-mass begins to modify on Wednesday with fewer record cold
temperatures expected but still remain well below normal. Wednesday's low
temps are likely to drop below zero from the Midwest to the Lower Great
Lakes.
An upper level trough tracking through the Four Corners region today is
responsible for heavy mountain snow across the Intermountain West. As the
trough ejects into the Southern Plains this afternoon, periods of snow
will breakout across parts of the Southern Plains with Oklahoma the
epicenter for the heaviest accumulations through Tuesday night. Snowfall
accumulations over 6 inches are expected there and extending into Arkansas
as the upper trough marches east on Wednesday. The same upper trough will
help to create a new wave of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that
becomes the next winter storm to track across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Snowfall accumulations on
Wednesday appear to be on the order of 3 to 6 inches in these areas, while
significant ice accumulations take shape from east Texas to the
Mississippi Delta region. Ice accumulations ranging between a quarter to a
half inch are possible which would make for hazardous travel conditions,
induce more power outages, and cause additional tree damage in these
areas. Eventually, this storm system will head for the Mid-Atlantic by
Thursday where accumulating snow and ice will likely lead to more
treacherous travel conditions.
Mullinax
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73, Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email: KF5JRV@GMAIL.com
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