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KF5JRV > WX 15.02.21 14:16l 96 Lines 5032 Bytes #999 (0) @ USBBS
BID : 10034_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - Feb 15
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<OK2PEN<NA7KR<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<AB0AF<W0ARP<
KF5JRV
Sent: 210215/1235Z 10034@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.20
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 15 2021 - 12Z Wed Feb 17 2021
...Over 150 million Americans are currently under Winter Storm Warnings,
Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Watches, or Winter Weather Advisories as
impactful winter weather continues from coast-to-coast...
...Major winter storm to spread heavy snow and significant ice
accumulations from the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley to the Northeast...
...Additional winter weather is expected for the Northwest this morning,
spreading south and east through Tuesday...
...Frigid Arctic air and dangerously cold wind chills to persist in the
Heartland through a good part of the week...
...Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and warm temperatures are expected
for southern Georgia and Florida...
An unprecedented and expansive area of hazardous winter weather continues
into Presidents Day as disruptive snow and ice accumulations transpire
across the South Central U.S. early this morning. This impressive
onslaught of wicked wintry weather across much of the Lower 48 is due to
the combination of strong Arctic high pressure supplying sub-freezing
temperatures and an active storm track escorting waves of precipitation
from coast-to-coast. While the current areas of snow and wintry mix over
parts of the Southern Plains will conclude later this morning, bitterly
cold temperatures will limit the amount of melting today, and thus
treacherous travel conditions are likely to persist. Heavy snow and
freezing rain are forecast to advance northeastward today from the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the Northeast. A large swath of 6 to 12
inches of snow is forecast from the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes to
northern New England. South of the heavy snow axis, freezing rain is
expected to cause a plethora of problems with over a tenth of an inch of
ice in the forecast from far east Texas northeastward to southern New
England. Significant ice amounts of a quarter to a half inch are expected
in portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South leading to
dangerous travel conditions, numerous power outages, and extensive tree
damage. Precipitation will likely stay rain for the southern Mid-Atlantic
and Southeast where cold air is more limited.
In the West, another surge of Pacific moisture is accompanying a frontal
system forecast to make landfall along the Pacific Northwest coast this
morning. More wintry weather is possible in lower elevations of the
Pacific Northwest, while locally heavy rain could create localized
flooding issues in far southwestern Oregon and far northwestern California
early this morning. Farther inland, the Great Basin and Intermountain West
can expect more rounds of higher elevation snowfall with the more intense
snowfall rates occurring on Presidents Day. Snowfall accumulations
forecasts through Tuesday suggests 1 to 2 feet is likely in the Cascades
and Northern Rockies through Tuesday (localized totals over 3 feet are
possible), with measurable snow extending into the Wind River
Mountains/Tetons, Wasatch, and Central/Southern Rockies as well.
Avalanches remain a big concern in portions of Utah. This storm system is
expected to be the next winter storm to impact the South Central U.S.
mid-week.
The aforementioned Arctic high across the central U.S. is forecast to
slowly moderate as the week progresses, but still maintain a firm and icy
grip over the Heartland to open the week. Teeth-chattering cold
temperatures are expected to continue between the Rockies and Appalachians
through Tuesday with lows in the -20s and -10s for the Northern/Central
Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperature anomalies are
likely to be 25 to 45 degrees below normal for much of the central and
southern Plains today with a carbon-copy of similar anomalies expected
again on Tuesday. In addition, Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories reach as
far south as the Southern Plains and as far east as the Ohio Valley.
Hundreds of daily low maximum and minimum temperatures have been/will be
broken during this prolonged "polar plunge", with some February and even
all-time low temperature records in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the
Southeast near and along a stationary front. Severe thunderstorms are in
the forecast today in southern Georgia and into the Florida peninsula
where a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place courtesy of the Storm
Prediction Center. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall across portions of Florida,
Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas is anticipated Monday afternoon and
evening. Florida will remains the warm spot in the CONUS with highs above
normal and generally in the 80s. A few daily record high temperatures may
be challenged in localized areas of the Sunshine State this afternoon.
Mullinax
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73, Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email: KF5JRV@GMAIL.com
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