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KF5JRV > WX 17.08.18 13:46l 91 Lines 3080 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18847_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Aug 17
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<XE1FH<N9PMO<AB0AF<
KF5JRV
Sent: 180817/1122Z 18847@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
876
AXPZ20 KNHC 170930
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 17 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Hurricane Lane centered near 11.4N 131.4W at 0900 UTC, or 1450
nm ESE of Hilo Hawaii, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center. Lane is expected to intensify, and
move W of 140W into the central Pacific Sat night. See latest
NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34
KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends north of 10N along 92W, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave
in the Gulf of Tehuantpec.
A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N along 113W, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 09N to 12.5N between 111W and 115W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08N78W to 08N97W
to 10N122W. No ITCZ axis is noted E of 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 11N between 93W and 106W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak surface ridging is west of the offshore waters area. NW
winds will remain gentle to moderate through tonight, then
freshen slightly this weekend as the ridge strengthens.
No major gap wind events expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
although nocturnal northerly drainage flow around 15-20 kt is
expected there each night. These fresh winds combined with long
period southerly swell will support seas to 6-7 ft through Sat.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough should meander near 09N during the next few
days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be moderate or
weaker, with the only possible exception being near the Gulf of
Papagayo, where winds can pulse to moderate to fresh each night.
Long-period SW cross-equatorial swell impacting Central America
and offshore zones is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft. Swell will
gradually diminish during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Lane.
A surface trough has moved W of 140W with no deep convection. An
area of fresh winds and seas to 7-8 ft associated with the wave
have also moved west of the area.
Otherwise, ridging will continue to extend from NW to SE across
the waters N of the convergence zone for the next several days.
Moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell will prevail.
$$
Mundell
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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