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KF5JRV > WX 27.08.17 09:27l 83 Lines 3132 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1307_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/21
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170821/1115Z 1307@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210916
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Hurricane Kenneth is near 17.4N 130.0W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 115 kt gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N
to 19N between 127W and 132W. Kenneth is a major hurricane near
peak intensity. It is expected weaken only slightly during the
next 24 hours, then weaken more rapidly afterwards as it moves
over cooler water and encounters greater vertical shear. Refer
to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 10N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 90 nm west and 30 nm east of the wave axis.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N84W to 10N111W to
07N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 119W and 122W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A low level trough will meander across the Baja California
Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of the week
with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough
axis north of 29N. A surface ridge extending across the western
waters will weaken later today as a low currently near 35N123W
drifts south, with a trough expected to develop along 125W by
tonight. Moderate NW winds will prevail through the end of the
week west of the Baja California Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft seas.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue this morning, with
seas to 8 ft. Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each night
through early Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through Tue, while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure centered near 38N139W extends a ridge southeast to
near 23N120W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds west
of a low drifting south off the California coast will build seas
to 8-9 ft north of 28N between 125W-136W Tue morning. Moderate
to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough and W of 120W.
$$
Mundell
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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