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CX2SA > SWPC 29.10.12 23:23l 56 Lines 2169 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3759_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<F1OYP<VE2PKT<CX2SA
Sent: 121029/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:3759 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3759_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The largest and only
event of the period was a B6 flare at 29/0302Z from Region 1596
(N05W79). Regions 1601 (S10E11) and 1602 (S17E65) were numbered
today. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the reporting
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 October). Quiet conditions are
expected again on day 2 (31 October) until the arrival of the CMEs
from 27/28 October, when there is a chance for active conditions
late in the period. Active conditions are again likely with a
chance for minor storm conditions on day 3 (01 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 108
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 006/005-010/012-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/45
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 10/20/30
Major-severe storm 05/35/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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