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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.10.12 16:26l 107 Lines 4227 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU295
UGEOA 30512 21021 0910/ 9930/
12212 21212 30212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Oct 2012 until 23 Oct
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 157 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Solar activity has increased to active during the past 24
hours, featuring a long duration M9.1 flare and six C flares. The M9.1
flare was released by newly numbered NOAA AR 11598 on the east limb and
peaked at 18:14 UT on October 20. An associated CME was observed by
LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT, but is not directed towards Earth. A type II radio
burst was observed at 18:15 UT, indicating a shock speed of 516 km/s.
M-level flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a slight
chance for an X flare and a proton storm. Geomagnetic activity was at
quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during
the past 24 hours. Quiet (K Dourbes < 4) geomagnetic activity is
expected for October 21. Quiet to active (K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic
levels are possible on October 22 and 23 due to the effects of a weak
coronal hole high speed stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 056, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 21021 0910/ 20///
1//// 21510 3002/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
20 1805 1814 1819 M9.0 II/1
1598
END
USSPS 32404 20086 05832 25011 42707 2/801 28002 11815 21305 30036
15507 21506 31009 34922 21406
USSPS 21305 20158 01132 45010 28709 2/801
USSPS 81202 20078 07532 36020 15606 54507 34011 11915 31408 31010
42208 41402 30012 34431 31406 29009 46012 01202
UMAGF 30503 21021 1004/ 20063 1/006 21110 31111
UMAGF 31523 21021 ///// 2000/ 1/002 20011 30011
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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