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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.10.12 14:41l 111 Lines 4262 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 12:45:29 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU275
UGEOA 30512 21001 1216/ 9930/
12012 20012 38012
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 01 Oct 2012 until 03 Oct
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 004
COMMENT: The solar background X-ray flux is currently at the C-level.
This means that C-class flares are guaranteed, especially from the
active region complex at the west limb dominated by the NOAA AR 1583.
Several sunspots re-emerged in the NOAA AR 1578, which also has a
significant flaring potential. Another active region (NOAA AR 1584)
emerged in the southern hemisphere. An M-class flare is expected in one
of the three active regions (despite two of them being situated at the
limb now). An eruption in the NOAA ARs 1578 or 1584 may be accompanied
by a proton event due to the active region position at the west limb.
The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with the
speed around 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude
decreased to 10-11 nT and the IMF north-south component Bz is currently
positive. Geomagnetic conditions returned to quiet to unsettled levels,
although active conditions remain possible in case of the IMF turn to
the south.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 053, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 21001 1216/ 30///
1//// 21360 3015/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 30096 08432 03006 47907 2/801 06004 45808 21303 11018
20110 2/801 14035 22512 4/801 15006 47912 21403 16001 47117 01202
17001 23723 01203
USSPS 21305 30166 06532 23022 22211 5/801 25004 23522 01205 19020
30310 4/801 15005 45806 31304 12005 47908 01204
UMAGF 30503 21001 1004/ 30066 1/040 21332 33455
UMAGF 31523 20931 ///// 3000/ 1/015 21123 33335
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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