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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.10.12 14:38l 107 Lines 4178 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
September 2012 : 61.5 (sixty-one point five)
Maximum : 112 on 3 // Minimum : 34 on 14
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for September 2012 :
1.. 95 6.. 76 11.. 50 16.. 42 21.. 55 26.. 95
2.. 93 7.. 62 12.. 48 17.. 36 22.. 38 27.. 74
3..112 8.. 54 13.. 38 18.. 42 23.. 49 28.. 56
4..104 9.. 58 14.. 34 19.. 44 24.. 66 29.. 52
5.. 80 10.. 46 15.. 40 20.. 53 25.. 89 30.. 65
70 cooperating stations on October 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for March 2012 : 66.8 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2012 Apr 63 69 2012 Oct 70 83 2013 Apr 79 92
May 59 72 Nov 72 85 May 78 91
Jun 64 75 Dec 74 88 Jun 77 91
Jul 65 78 2013 Jan 76 90 Jul 76 92
Aug 66 80 Feb 78 91 Aug 75 91
Sep 68 81 Mar 79 92 Sep 74 91
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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