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CX2SA > SWPC 02.10.12 00:24l 61 Lines 2529 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2493_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<OE6XPE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 121001/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:2493 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:2493_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1575 (now around the
west limb) produced several C-class x-ray events during the period,
the greatest a C9 at 30/2339Z. No Earth-sided CMEs were observed
leaving the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for day 1 (2 October). Activity is expected to be very low to low on
days 2 and 3 (3 and 4 October), as the complex or regions near the
western extent of the visible solar disk continue beyond the limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels, as weak CME
effects from the previous period continued in progress. The first
period of 1 October saw an increase to severe storm levels, after a
second CME arrived at ACE around 30/2221Z with a subsequent Sudden
Impulse (SI) to Earths magnetic field (35nT measured at Boulder) at
30/2307Z. A single major storm period followed, before conditions
decreased to active and then again to quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (2 October) as CME
effects wane. Days 2 and 3 (3 and 4 October) should see mostly quiet
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 128
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 017/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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