| |
CX2SA > SWPC 06.09.12 23:26l 63 Lines 2661 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1072_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 120906/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:1072 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1072_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1560 (N04W73 -
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 06/0413Z as
well as occasional low-level C-class flares. No obvious changes were
noted in Region 1560, but limb proximity hampered analysis. Region
1564 (S14W13 - Esi/beta) also produced occasional low-level C-class
flares. It showed minor spot and penumbral growth in its interior
portion. Region 1562 (S22W48 - Dso/beta) showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period. No new regions were numbered. No
Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (07 - 09 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare on day 1. There will be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare during days 2 - 3.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 06/0000 - 0300Z due to periods of southward
IMF Bz and enhanced IMF Bt associated with a solar sector boundary
change. Field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels after
06/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September) with a chance for unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 30/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 128
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 024/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 007/008-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
