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W7EES > SWPC 03.09.12 03:22l 55 Lines 2344 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<XE1FH<N0KFQ<N5MDT<N9LYA<N0JAL<
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Sent: 120902/2256 6926@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region
remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma
configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep
occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of
this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME,
and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On
days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to
mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two
CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are
expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 75/40/20
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 142
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 40/20/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 40/10/20
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