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W7EES > SWPC 02.09.12 17:03l 52 Lines 2192 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1ABFW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<N9PMO<N9PMO<N4JOA<N9LYA<N0JAL<K7ZS<W7EES
Sent: 120831/2317 6847@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N04E09), 1563
(S24E58) and newly numbered 1564 (S13E70) each produced low-level C
flares during the period. Region 1564 rotated around the east limb
overnight and is considered a Dao-beta spot group. Region 1560 grew
in areal coverage and became more magnetically complex with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C8 flare associated with a
large filament eruption near S06E20 occurred at 31/2043Z associated
with Type II (estimated speed 515 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A
CME first became visible on SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately
1945Z. Further evaluation will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery
becomes available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period
(01-03 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next three days (01-03 September).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 131
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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