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CX2SA > SWPC 30.08.12 23:22l 58 Lines 2306 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 816_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<VE1MPF<VE9MPF<N9PMO<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120830/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:816 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:816_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east
limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with
a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a
slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 128
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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