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CX2SA > SWPC 28.08.12 00:22l 58 Lines 2314 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 712_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120827/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:712 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:712_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78)
produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three
new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type
group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a
Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and
quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (28-29 August) due to continued effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (30 August), conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 112
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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