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W7EES > SWPC 21.08.12 13:42l 53 Lines 2212 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 195EW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<F1OYP<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<VK2DOT<N9LYA<N0XR<W6IDS<
W7EES
Sent: 120820/2323 6494@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1543 (N21, L=021)
produced the largest event of the period, a B8 flare at 19/2315Z,
off of the northwest limb. Region 1548 (N20E47) also produced a low
level B-class flare. The remaining spotted regions were stable and
quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 19/1918Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed
of 605 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be
a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next
three days (21-23 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 19/2100Z to 20/0000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (21-22 August) due to continued effects from
the coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (23 August) conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 096
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/05
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