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CX2SA > SWPC 19.08.12 23:21l 66 Lines 2744 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2SA
Sent: 120819/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:42 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1548 (N19E62)
produced two M-class flares, an M1/Sf at 18/2254Z and an M1/Sn flare
at 18/2322Z. Activity then decreased to low levels for the
remainder of the period. Region 1548 decreased in area and ended
the period as a Cso type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
New Region 1549 (S16W30) was numbered today and also a simple
Cso-beta type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event for the next three days (20-22
August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A
coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective during the past
24 hours. At approximately 18/08Z, solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft began increasing from about 400 km/s to 580 km/s.
Shortly after, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) became negative, eventually reaching -12nT. Bz returned to
positive values around 14Z. Earth is currently in the positive
sector of the IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels with a chance for active
conditions on day 1 (20 August), decreasing to a slight chance on
days 2-3 (21-22 August). The disturbed conditions are expected in
response to the continued presence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 096
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 012/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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