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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.08.12 14:10l 115 Lines 4388 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2012 12:42:35 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Aug 18 1241 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU231
UGEOA 30512 20818 1208/ 9930/
12182 21182 30182
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2012 until 20 Aug
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 007
COMMENT: After days of quiet space weather conditions, we expect a
radical change in the next few days with an increase of the flaring
activity. Active conditions (M class flare likely) are expected from a
region which is beginning its transit on the East limb (NOAA AR 1548).
It produced already 4 M flares, the strongest one, a M5.5, peaking at
0102 UT on Aug. 18th. Although the region's magnetic morphology remains
unknown for the moment, there is, in addition to M flares, a risk for an
isolated major flare (X class). CMEs were associated with these flares
but no geomagnetic consequences are expected. A filament eruption
occurred near AR 1543 around 23:30 UT on Aug. 17th, triggering a CME
which is not expected to be geoffective either. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be active by the end of Aug. 18th, due to a coronal hole
becoming geoeffective.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20818 1208/ 17///
1//// 20951 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
17 1312 1319 1323 M2.4 59 III/2
1548 partially occulted flare
17 1708 1720 1727 M1.0 140 III/2
1548 partially occulted flare
18 0024 0102 0107 N19E86 M5.5 SF 150
1548
18 0317 0323 0330 M1.8 100
1548
END
USSPS 32404 17071 04222 73035 45124 4/805 77005 16916 2/801 78002
13205 11306
USSPS 81202 18039 04842 77030 46223 4/803 81001 42714 0/102 82001
12106 01202 80005 15616 2/801
UMAGF 30503 20818 1004/ 17062 1/010 22111 32212
UMAGF 31523 20818 ///// 1700/ 1/010 24221 31223
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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