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W7EES > SWPC 18.08.12 00:54l 54 Lines 2276 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17E3W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<F6IQF<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<JE7YGF<N9PMO<9Y4PJ<N9LYA<
N0JAL<K7ZS<W7EES
Sent: 120817/2257 6115@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare was observed
on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast
limb around 17/1354Z. An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the
same vicinity. The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu).
New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso
type group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1543 (N24W59)
remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko
type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period. The
remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions. The active
period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13
August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20
August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 10/15/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 095
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 009/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/25/25
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