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W7EES > SWPC 16.08.12 15:04l 51 Lines 2040 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1792W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<ON4HU<F6IQF<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9PMO<KQ0I<
W0AK<N0XR<W6IDS<W7EES
Sent: 120816/0028 6034@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14W46) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/1f flare at 14/2232Z. Region
1543 (N21W34) is the largest region on the disk and showed little
change while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (16 - 18 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on day 1 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August
CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 2 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions are expected on Day 3 (18 August) as effects of
the CME begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 101
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/010-010/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/05
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