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W7EES > SWPC 12.08.12 03:19l 53 Lines 2098 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 176DW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<JE7YGF<N9PMO<N9PMO<W7JDC<KV7J<KJ6IX<W7EES
Sent: 120812/0036 5997@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1540 (S25W50)
produced a long duration M1/2n flare at 11/1220Z. A faint CME was
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the southwest at
11/1325Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness. Region 1542 (S31W33) produced a C2/1f flare at
11/1642Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(12-14 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field shifted southward to around -5nT
beginning at 11/08Z and remained there through the period. Solar
wind speed remained between 300-350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods, for the next three days (12-14 August).
The elevated activity is associated with the arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 120
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/15
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