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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.08.12 15:02l 113 Lines 4378 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Aug 07 1247 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU220
UGEOA 30512 20807 1220/ 9930/
12072 22072 30072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Aug 2012 until 09 Aug
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 141 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Since the M1.6 flare yesterday, NOAA AR 1542 (no Catania
number yet), now visible close to the south-east limb, also produced 11
C-class flares (although they were mostly weak). More C-class flares are
expected from this active region, probably with an occasional M-class
flare. The eruption of the filament close to the solar disk center was
only partial yesterday, and resulted only in a weak and slow CME that is
not expected to be geoeffective. Since then the filament has reformed
and keeps the potential to erupt with an associated Earth-directed CME.
The Earth is currently inside the slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow
with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We
expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the following hours. During the
coming night we expect the arrival of the interplanetary disturbance
associated with the halo CME detected on the Sun on August 4. A minor
geomagnetic storm will be possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 081, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20807 1220/ 06///
1//// 21340 3017/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 06079 07732 62015 37219 2/801 64006 41919 21303 67004
10513 2/801 68011 30123 21405 69000 21223 0/101 70007 22727 21306
USSPS 21305 06154 09342 69004 10212 2/801 74002 28013 3/802 73006
22426 31310 70000 20923 0/101 68012 30423 21407 62007 37520 3/801
66006 42619 2/801
USSPS 81202 07017 12132 77012 17819 41302 71004 20620 21406 72006
21626 21309 76012 27215 41302 69013 31023 21505 64018 37516 41302
70006 40412 2/801 75001 41618 0/101 67008 42719 21303
UMAGF 30503 20807 1004/ 06066 1/018 21223 33322
UMAGF 31523 20807 ///// 0600/ 1/017 23423 33433
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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